Society · Protocols
Certaintyclap
Credit claims by their calibration, not by the confidence of their delivery
Definition
Mechanism
A group records each claim with the confidence its speaker stated, scores claims against outcomes as in ConfidenceCalibrate, and gives credit by that score. Confident delivery earns nothing by itself.
Invariants
- Claims are recorded with their stated confidence.
- Credit follows calibration against outcomes, not the confidence of delivery.
Risks
Failure modes
Bluster reward
confident delivery earns credit that calibration would not.
Hedge reward
vague claims are credited because they cannot be wrong.
Relationships
Builds on
References
Mind
Aligning subjective confidence with objective frequency
Nothing in this library builds on this pattern yet.
Reference