Mind · Reasoning

EpistemicCascade

A conclusion inherits the verification assurance of its weakest load-bearing premise.

Definition

Mechanism

Before an assertion crosses a boundary (a message, a commit, an irreversible action), enumerate the premises it load-bears on and grade the assurance of each: Independent (a Check by a method other than the one that produced the premise), Self (checked only by the producing process), or None (Assumption). A Check yields a Status; this pattern grades what that outcome is worth given how it was obtained, so a Verified premise carrying only Self assurance does not raise the closure. The assertion's assurance is the minimum over that closure; reasoning quality above a weakly assured premise cannot raise it. To upgrade, select the premise with the highest ratio of downstream cost to checking cost and apply Verification by an independent method, then re-derive. Where no check is possible before the boundary, the assertion carries its assurance explicitly instead of borrowing confidence from fluency (EpistemicCalibrate), and BeliefTracking records the pending premises so later evidence can settle them.

Preconditions

  1. The assertion's load-bearing premises can be enumerated.
  2. The boundary crossing is identifiable before it happens.

Postconditions

  1. Every boundary-crossing assertion carries an explicit assurance grade.
  2. The weakest load-bearing premise is either independently verified or declared.

Invariants

  1. Assurance(conclusion) never exceeds min(Assurance(premise)) over its load-bearing premises.
  2. A premise checked only by the process that produced it carries Self assurance at most; Independent requires a method that did not produce it.
  3. Assurance changes only through verification events, never through repetition or restatement.

Risks

Failure modes

  1. Polishing reasoning downstream of a weakly assured premise

    rigor above does not repair assurance below.

  2. Verifying the cheapest premise instead of the most load-bearing one.

  3. Confidence laundering

    an assertion crosses a boundary and the reader assigns it an assurance it never earned.

Relationships

Builds on

References

Infrastructure

Check

Side-effect-free observational verification yielding Verified/Falsified/Unknown

Infrastructure

Status

Graded verification outcome: Verified, Falsified, or Unknown

Used by

References

Twoledger

Adopt a perspective for what it opens, and check its claims on a separate ledger

Reference

Identity

Ref
EpistemicCascade#00ae
Sema ID
sema:EpistemicCascade#mh:SHA-256:00ae0d471938ddbddaec91d4e7936d31d21e0e52cbb9a7064dbd37f66dd513c4
Ring
2
Tier
1
Updated
2026-11-11
Supersedes
  • sema:EpistemicCascade#mh:SHA-256:a4895b4b9ee695aa277d757aac2bed96e7a9b9ecbaba4936300296aa143185d2
  • sema:EpistemicCascade#mh:SHA-256:5deb0cd3e65bed8943c6bd6bc78d9abd6edfb8ea6652a9d85adb9521a38789cc