Mind · Strategy

PreMortem

Simulating failure to identify hidden risks

Definition

Mechanism

For a contemplated course, state an unwanted outcome and reason as though it has already occurred. Ask what caused it and record course- and context-linked causal scenarios. Return those scenarios; selection, ranking, and response remain caller choices.

Preconditions

  1. A contemplated course is identified.

Postconditions

  1. Course-linked causal failure scenarios, or an explicit none-found result, recorded.

Invariants

  1. Prospective Hindsight: During scenario generation, the selected unwanted outcome is treated as already having occurred, without asserting its probability.
  2. Causal Specificity: Each recorded scenario names a causal explanation linked to the course and context; generic bad luck alone is insufficient.

Risks

Failure modes

  1. Performative Doomerism

    Recording generic disasters disconnected from the course or context.

Relationships

Root pattern: builds on nothing in this library.

Used by

Composes with

References

Reference

Identity

Ref
PreMortem#e4c2
Sema ID
sema:PreMortem#mh:SHA-256:e4c24813f33aa41fdb183e380d05707fe1fd813c46b4127602449a8988f47964
Ring
2
Tier
1
Updated
2026-11-11
Supersedes
  • sema:PreMortem#mh:SHA-256:f69d7ea1811d52c879c9d45e5546796ca328f8806e322fe42bd3ae2ebfc9dea5
  • sema:PreMortem#mh:SHA-256:6cc4fa30402760c632af25ea100c15fa3b0191b6a3beae343b84a8162d1123e2
  • sema:PreMortem#mh:SHA-256:4c7fe58aa4f9a9e7a319d8eb3ca56e449a390d6b0fa574b258f9cf7a32ef138e