Society · Dynamics
SecurityDilemma
Each side's defensive build-up reads as a threat to the other, so both arm and both end less secure
Definition
Mechanism
Two or more parties with no common authority above them each raise their capacity to defend themselves. Much of that capacity could also attack, so each reads the others' increases as possible threats and raises its own in reply; the reply in turn raises the first party's next increase, and each round lowers the security of all though none intends aggression. The spiral eases when the parties can tell defensive from offensive capacity, credibly limit or verify each other's capacity, or accept a common authority, and it can end in a war that each side expected the other to start. One party pursuing aggression while the other only defends, and build-ups that cannot threaten the other side, are not instances.
Invariants
- The parties have no common authority able to guarantee their security.
- Each party raises its capacity to secure itself, not to attack the others.
- Each party's increase in defensive capacity can also threaten the others.
- Each party answers the others' increases by raising its own, and that answer raises the others' next increases.
Risks
Failure modes
Intent read from capacity
the other side's build-up is taken as proof of aggressive intent.
Every war a spiral
wars that one side sought on purpose are explained as spirals no one wanted.
Restraint read as weakness
one side's attempt to limit or signal its capacity is dismissed as a trick or exploited.
Relationships
Builds on
Extends
One party's influence changes another's response, which returns to change the first party's later influence
Nothing in this library builds on this pattern yet.
Reference