Society · Dynamics
Sunbound
An economy that draws its energy only from current plant growth can grow only as far as its land allows
Definition
Mechanism
In an economy whose energy comes from current photosynthesis, as food for human and animal muscle, wood for heat and fodder for draught animals, with wind and water as small supplements, every increase in energy use needs land, and the same land must also grow food and fibre. Output per person can then rise only through trade, specialization and better use of land, and growth slows as land runs short. Drawing on a stock of energy not tied to current land, such as coal, oil and gas, lifts this bound: energy use, output per person and population can rise together far beyond what the land yields, while new bounds appear in the depletion of the stock and in the capacity of air, water and land to absorb its wastes. Economies held back by something other than land-bound energy are not instances.
Invariants
- The economy's energy comes from current plant growth, supplemented only by flows such as wind and water.
- Each increase in energy use requires more land or more output from each unit of land.
- Energy use per person stays within what the land can supply alongside food.
Risks
Failure modes
Energy as sufficient cause
access to fossil energy is taken to explain growth on its own, overlooking the institutions, skills and markets that put it to use.
New bounds ignored
escaping the land bound is treated as escaping every bound, missing depletion and the limits of waste sinks.
Stagnation assumed
growth within the bound through trade and specialization is overlooked.
Relationships
Root pattern: builds on nothing in this library.
Nothing in this library builds on this pattern yet.
Reference