On the Origin of Risk

ChannelCapacity

The maximum rate at which information can be reliably transmitted through a channel, given its noise

ComputationalEntropyRate

Bits submitted per bit accepted in a channel that computes, where rejection is meaningful work rather than noise

CryptographicChange

Using the room a prediction frees up in a process, either to return visible savings or to run extra functions that the process's outputs do not reveal

FullCryptographicChange

A parasitic function that rides on a host process, occupying the same states without needing any prediction, and paying only in delay

ProductivePredictionMachine

A machine simplified by a prediction about its inputs, so that it does the same work with less, for as long as the prediction holds

QuasiCryptographicChange

Hand back the room a prediction frees up as visible efficiency savings: same function, measurably cheaper, nothing hidden

Exaptation

A mechanism that evolved for one function is taken over for a different function in a new context

ExogenousStress

An external event or change in requirements that the current shape does not handle and that forces it to change

RedQueenRace

In a co-evolving environment an agent must keep changing just to hold its position, because the yardstick of fitness moves with every rival's change

ExplosiveNoise

What a single-model system filters out as noise can be signal belonging to another, overlapping model

AnthropomorphicRiskBias

The gap between how humans model and manage risk and how organisms manage it: decision over organisation, prediction over creation, control of shape over change of shape

LudicFallacy

Mistaking an artificial, rule-bound model of a situation for the real situation, and its yardstick for the real goal

MassAmplifiedError

A fixed error rate in a frozen model grows into a larger absolute error the more is invested in that model

MetaAccuracy

Success at hitting any one of several available targets, each measured in its own code

MetaPrecision

How comparable all attempts are under one shared yardstick, which is what makes them rankable

NaturalProblem

A problem in which meta-accuracy trades off against meta-precision, so that solving it requires changing shape

NaturalRiskMathematics

Model natural risk with three mathematics used together: game theory, information theory and computer theory

SelfCheckingBias

Correcting as you go still fails when the same model that produced the shape is the one checking it

ShapeLossAsGrowth

Exponential growth curves are better read as loss of shape in the thing being scaled than as a shape to aim for

ConcurrentBetHedge

Switch one line of development back and forth between two inversely related niches, so that a path to complex function exists where no path exists within a single niche

CorrectAsYouGrow

When the total investment is not known in advance, add corrective information as mass is added, from more than one model

EndogenousStress

The internal load a system carries from being partly prepared for possible external stressors

FractalityTest

Granular, local or short-term responsiveness only pays if the local optimum differs from the global average

FractionalMetaModel

An implementation that is at once one working model and a partial implementation of several others, so that some functions can be completed or removed with a small change

InformationDividend

The payoff from changing shape to exploit reliable short-term information, which exists even when the long-range forecast is entirely correct

InformationGrowth

Adding new information that has value in its own right, even when exploiting it deforms or abandons the current shape

MassAddition

Committing investment (money, matter, energy, people or action) to the information an organisation currently holds

MetaModularity

A body plan that holds many overlapping but non-identical models of the same problem, ready to instantiate whichever fits

MonoModularity

A body plan in which one model processes every situation, treating each situation as just more data for the same process

MultiModularity

A body plan of standardised, separate parts that can be swapped like for like

PartialCryptographicChange

Fill the room a prediction frees up with an extra process interleaved with the main one, so a second function runs at no visible cost

ProximateOptions

Inputs that are generated but currently rejected are cheap, latent options sitting in the gap between the generator's and the acceptor's languages

ShapeControl

Keeping an organisation, model or trajectory close to a desired form or target, with information serving that form

ShapeMassInformation

Risk in organisation growth is the balance of three trading-off ingredients: control of shape, addition of mass and growth of information

StoppingRule

Stop integrating stressor handling into a design once it survives a fresh round of unseen simulated stressors, or once further integration costs more than it buys; tested by experiment, not proven from a probability distribution

StrategicIntermediateState

Occupy a position that lowers the cost of moving to many valuable states, rather than one that is best for any single state

WeatherAgent

Choose between holding shape (adding inertia) and moving with the information (removing inertia) by weighing switching cost, information reliability and local variation

BalancedScopeChange

Let scope move in and out of a project in balance, so the resource forecast stays intact while the delivered value rises

ChimericalComputation

Natural work overlaps: doing more of one task always means doing a little less of another, and imperfect alignment between them packs more function into the same agents

CommunicativeRedundancy

Redundancy in communication is inefficient for one message or interaction but efficient for a space in which many interactions keep taking place

CounterfactualCurve

The value of options kept viable but never used, visible as the departure of a well-run project from the superficially most efficient path

FractionalDelivery

Pre-position part of a possible future configuration so that, when the game changes, most agents already fit the new optimum and only the remaining fraction must change strategy

Laterality

The number of functional units that must coordinate for an action to happen; the more units, the less likely it happens

LowLateralityExit

Build in points where one party alone can stop or change course, so that ending an activity never needs everyone to switch at once

ManyWaysReliability

A task with many noisy pathways happens reliably by the law of large numbers, without a single accountable owner

OrgChartBias

Every organisational structure makes some tasks 'losers' with high laterality and weak communication; reorganising only moves the problem

OrganicWork

Work whose shape is not fully controlled centrally and is not dominated by a single objective

OrganisationGame

A pure coordination game in which the best joint strategy keeps changing, so the key is how cheaply players can move to the next game

PeripheralHitchhiking

Unplanned but necessary information travels on top of regular primary communication

ResourceShapeSeparation

Predict resources over the long range, and leave the shape of the work free to follow short-range information

VectorOptionTimeline

A project plan that records live options, their decision points and activation costs, and updates their value as the project proceeds, instead of a fixed sequence of tasks