Society · Coordination

VectorOptionTimeline

A project plan that records live options, their decision points and activation costs, and updates their value as the project proceeds, instead of a fixed sequence of tasks

Definition

Mechanism

Alongside the preferred path, draw the options that leave it: each with a decision point (a diamond), the alternative path it opens, its expected timeline under uncertainty and its activation cost. Decision points represent the project's intrinsic complexity; uncertainty in timelines represents extrinsic complexity such as other teams' availability. As the project nears a decision point, short-range information about the option's real value and cost becomes reliable, and the manager explicitly decides whether to activate it, in which case it becomes part of the preferred path, as a WeatherAgent decides whether to move. This keeps the ResourceShapeSeparation: resource forecasts stay long-range while the path within them can change. Zooming out never removes options: what one level treats as a non-negotiable milestone is, one level of authority up, a preferred option among others.

Invariants

  1. Every option records its decision point, alternative path and activation cost
  2. Option values are updated as the project nears each decision point
  3. There are options at every level of the plan, including the top

Risks

Failure modes

  1. Treating the top-level plan as fixed when it is a preferred option to higher authority

  2. Recording options once and never updating their value

  3. Letting activation costs of unused options rise until they are no longer real options

Relationships

Builds on

References

ResourceShapeSeparation

Predict resources over the long range, and leave the shape of the work free to follow short-range information

Mind

WeatherAgent

Choose between holding shape (adding inertia) and moving with the information (removing inertia) by weighing switching cost, information reliability and local variation

Used by

References

CounterfactualCurve

The value of options kept viable but never used, visible as the departure of a well-run project from the superficially most efficient path

Reference

Identity

Ref
VectorOptionTimeline#96ae
Sema ID
sema:VectorOptionTimeline#mh:SHA-256:96ae792943d38f0ea59da99e62cd63e103841a75c3a2e6a056a6040646fe17a3
Ring
2
Tier
2
Updated
2026-11-11