Mind · Strategy
WeatherAgent
Choose between holding shape (adding inertia) and moving with the information (removing inertia) by weighing switching cost, information reliability and local variation
Definition
Mechanism
An agent can be in one of several places (Home or Park) and the payoff of each depends on the state of the world (Rain or Sun); moving between them costs something. The same setup can be seen two ways at once, like a gestalt figure: as ShapeControl (a self-righting agent keeping its payoff maximal whatever the weather) or as exploiting information by changing shape. The decision rule follows from three variables. If short-term information is unreliable, add inertia: move less and wait for more evidence. If it is reliable, switching costs are low and the FractalityTest shows local conditions differ from the average, remove inertia and move often to collect the InformationDividend. If switching costs are high, hold one shape chosen from the long-range forecast. Lowering the cost of moving is itself a strategy for raising the dividend.
Preconditions
- The agent can change position or policy at a known cost
- Some short-range information about the current state is available
Invariants
- Both views, maintaining shape and exploiting information by changing it, apply to the same agent
- More inertia is right for noisy information; less inertia for reliable, locally varying information
- The dividend from moving is capped by the cost of moving
Risks
Failure modes
Treating instability as noise when it is reliable information that averages out over the long range
Moving on every signal when signals are unreliable
Not investing in lowering switching costs when the dividend would justify it
Relationships
Builds on
References
Granular, local or short-term responsiveness only pays if the local optimum differs from the global average
The payoff from changing shape to exploit reliable short-term information, which exists even when the long-range forecast is entirely correct
Keeping an organisation, model or trajectory close to a desired form or target, with information serving that form
Used by
References
Society
A project plan that records live options, their decision points and activation costs, and updates their value as the project proceeds, instead of a fixed sequence of tasks
Reference